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2014 Senate · NM

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 962 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 36%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.56% · Republican 44.44%

D+11.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 36 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.559 − 44.441 = 11.118
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (11.118) = 4.882
  4. Absolute miss = |4.882| = 4.882

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33761, race ID 3 (538 database).