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2014 Governor · NH

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 643 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.948) = -0.948
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.948| = 0.948

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33757, race ID 1234 (538 database).