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2010 House · OR-1

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 2,065 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 38.3%

D+6.4

The certified result

Democrat 54.75% · Republican 41.94%

D+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 38.3 = 6.40
  2. Actual margin = 54.746 − 41.944 = 12.802
  3. Signed miss = 6.40 − (12.802) = -6.402
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.402| = 6.402

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32867, race ID 4786 (538 database).