Skip to content

2010 Senate · OR

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 2,237 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52.7% · Republican 39%

D+13.7

The certified result

Democrat 57.22% · Republican 39.25%

D+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.7 − 39 = 13.70
  2. Actual margin = 57.224 − 39.249 = 17.975
  3. Signed miss = 13.70 − (17.975) = -4.275
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.275| = 4.275

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32867, race ID 1536 (538 database).