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2010 House · WV-1

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 2,033 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34.8% · Republican 41.2%

R+6.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.60% · Republican 50.40%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34.8 − 41.2 = -6.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.600 − 50.400 = -0.800
  3. Signed miss = -6.40 − (-0.800) = -5.599
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.599| = 5.599

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32866, race ID 4884 (538 database).