Skip to content

2010 Senate · WV

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 1,696 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 39.8%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.40%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 39.8 = 3.20
  2. Actual margin = 53.469 − 43.403 = 10.066
  3. Signed miss = 3.20 − (10.066) = -6.866
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.866| = 6.866

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32866, race ID 1543 (538 database).