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2010 House · OH-18

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 2,291 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 33.4% · Republican 46.5%

R+13.1

The certified result

Democrat 40.49% · Republican 53.86%

R+13.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33.4 − 46.5 = -13.10
  2. Actual margin = 40.490 − 53.862 = -13.372
  3. Signed miss = -13.10 − (-13.372) = 0.272
  4. Absolute miss = |0.272| = 0.272

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32865, race ID 4780 (538 database).