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2010 House · OH-16

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 2,715 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 31.5% · Republican 45.9%

R+14.4

The certified result

Democrat 41.26% · Republican 52.08%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31.5 − 45.9 = -14.40
  2. Actual margin = 41.262 − 52.082 = -10.820
  3. Signed miss = -14.40 − (-10.820) = -3.580
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.580| = 3.580

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32865, race ID 4778 (538 database).