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2010 House · OH-13

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 1,772 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39.3% · Republican 34.4%

D+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 55.73% · Republican 44.27%

D+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.3 − 34.4 = 4.90
  2. Actual margin = 55.732 − 44.268 = 11.464
  3. Signed miss = 4.90 − (11.464) = -6.564
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.564| = 6.564

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32865, race ID 4775 (538 database).