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2010 House · NH-2

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 917 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 44%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.76% · Republican 48.34%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 44 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.763 − 48.344 = -1.581
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-1.581) = -8.420
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.420| = 8.420

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32864, race ID 4703 (538 database).