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2010 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2010-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 451 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.76% · Republican 48.34%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.763 − 48.344 = -1.581
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.581) = 4.580
  4. Absolute miss = |4.580| = 4.580

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32837, race ID 4703 (538 database).