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2010 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2010-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 434 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 46%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.42% · Republican 54.04%

R+11.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 46 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.422 − 54.039 = -11.617
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-11.617) = 4.617
  4. Absolute miss = |4.617| = 4.617

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32837, race ID 4702 (538 database).