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2010 Senate · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2010-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 885 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 54%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.85% · Republican 60.09%

R+23.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 54 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.847 − 60.086 = -23.239
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-23.239) = 5.240
  4. Absolute miss = |5.240| = 5.240

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32837, race ID 1529 (538 database).