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2010 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2010-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 885 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.64% · Republican 45.03%

D+7.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.640 − 45.033 = 7.607
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (7.607) = -0.606
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.606| = 0.606

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32837, race ID 1288 (538 database).