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2010 Senate · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 548 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 15% · Republican 46%

R+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 15 − 46 = -31.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
  3. Signed miss = -31.00 − (-28.697) = -2.303
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.303| = 2.303

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32826, race ID 1514 (538 database).