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2010 Senate · NY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 578 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58.1% · Republican 34.5%

D+23.6

The certified result

Democrat 59.65% · Republican 28.13%

D+31.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.1 − 34.5 = 23.60
  2. Actual margin = 59.645 − 28.130 = 31.515
  3. Signed miss = 23.60 − (31.515) = -7.915
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.915| = 7.915

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32818, race ID 1531 (538 database).