2010 Senate · CA
Angus Reid Global · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 485 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 44%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.18% · Republican 42.17%
D+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 52.184 − 42.173 = 10.011
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (10.011) = -3.011
- Absolute miss = |-3.011| = 3.011
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32813, race ID 1510 (538 database).