Skip to content

2010 Senate · OH

Angus Reid Global · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 492 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 57%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 57 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-17.442) = 0.442
  4. Absolute miss = |0.442| = 0.442

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32812, race ID 1534 (538 database).