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2010 Senate · NV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.29% · Republican 44.55%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.289 − 44.547 = 5.742
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (5.742) = -8.742
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.742| = 8.742

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32808, race ID 1528 (538 database).