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2010 Senate · WA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 849 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 47.5%

D+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 52.37% · Republican 47.63%

D+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 47.5 = 2.70
  2. Actual margin = 52.365 − 47.635 = 4.730
  3. Signed miss = 2.70 − (4.730) = -2.030
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.030| = 2.030

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32793, race ID 1542 (538 database).