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2010 Governor · IL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 660 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.2% · Republican 49.5%

R+7.3

The certified result

Democrat 46.79% · Republican 45.94%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.2 − 49.5 = -7.30
  2. Actual margin = 46.789 − 45.935 = 0.854
  3. Signed miss = -7.30 − (0.854) = -8.153
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.153| = 8.153

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32791, race ID 1285 (538 database).