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2010 Senate · NV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 711 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.29% · Republican 44.55%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.289 − 44.547 = 5.742
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (5.742) = -7.742
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.742| = 7.742

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32789, race ID 1528 (538 database).