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2010 Governor · NV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 711 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 56%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.61% · Republican 53.36%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 56 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.613 − 53.361 = -11.748
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-11.748) = -4.252
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.252| = 4.252

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32789, race ID 1297 (538 database).