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2010 Senate · CT

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 759 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.48% · Republican 43.22%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.484 − 43.217 = 9.267
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (9.267) = 1.733
  4. Absolute miss = |1.733| = 1.733

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32788, race ID 1512 (538 database).