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2010 Governor · CT

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 759 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.21% · Republican 48.95%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.213 − 48.950 = -1.737
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.737) = -0.263
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.263| = 0.263

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32788, race ID 1280 (538 database).