2010 Senate · PA
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 46%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 48.992 − 51.008 = -2.016
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.016) = 0.017
- Absolute miss = |0.017| = 0.017
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32783, race ID 1537 (538 database).