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2010 Senate · OH

Columbus Dispatch · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 1,445 respondents · Mail

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 56%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 56 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-17.442) = 1.442
  4. Absolute miss = |1.442| = 1.442

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32780, race ID 1534 (538 database).