2010 House · UT-3
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 375 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 19% · Republican 70%
R+51.0
The certified result
Democrat 22.94% · Republican 72.33%
R+49.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 19 − 70 = -51.00
- Actual margin = 22.942 − 72.325 = -49.383
- Signed miss = -51.00 − (-49.383) = -1.617
- Absolute miss = |-1.617| = 1.617
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32774, race ID 4862 (538 database).