2010 House · UT-1
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 375 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 21% · Republican 66%
R+45.0
The certified result
Democrat 23.93% · Republican 69.19%
R+45.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 21 − 66 = -45.00
- Actual margin = 23.925 − 69.194 = -45.269
- Signed miss = -45.00 − (-45.269) = 0.268
- Absolute miss = |0.268| = 0.268
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32774, race ID 4860 (538 database).