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2010 Senate · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 415 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 36%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.98% · Republican 26.02%

D+38.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 36 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.979 − 26.021 = 37.958
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (37.958) = -13.958
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.958| = 13.958

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32773, race ID 1530 (538 database).