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2010 Senate · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 783 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.7% · Republican 42.8%

D+9.9

The certified result

Democrat 52.48% · Republican 43.22%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.7 − 42.8 = 9.90
  2. Actual margin = 52.484 − 43.217 = 9.267
  3. Signed miss = 9.90 − (9.267) = 0.633
  4. Absolute miss = |0.633| = 0.633

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32764, race ID 1512 (538 database).