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2010 Governor · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 783 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.21% · Republican 48.95%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.213 − 48.950 = -1.737
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.737) = 5.737
  4. Absolute miss = |5.737| = 5.737

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32764, race ID 1280 (538 database).