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2010 Governor · CO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 855 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 9%

D+38.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.05% · Republican 11.14%

D+39.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 9 = 38.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.052 − 11.142 = 39.910
  3. Signed miss = 38.00 − (39.910) = -1.910
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.910| = 1.910

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32762, race ID 1279 (538 database).