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2010 Governor · AZ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 53%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.47% · Republican 54.33%

R+11.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 53 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.471 − 54.334 = -11.863
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-11.863) = -2.137
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.137| = 2.137

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32760, race ID 1276 (538 database).