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2010 Senate · OH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 57%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 57 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-17.442) = -6.558
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.558| = 6.558

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32759, race ID 1534 (538 database).