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2010 Senate · WA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 638 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.37% · Republican 47.63%

D+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.365 − 47.635 = 4.730
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.730) = -3.730
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.730| = 3.730

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32755, race ID 1542 (538 database).