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2010 Governor · PA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 461 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 54.49%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.511 − 54.489 = -8.978
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-8.978) = 1.977
  4. Absolute miss = |1.977| = 1.977

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32752, race ID 1301 (538 database).