2010 Governor · CO
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 615 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 7%
D+40.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.05% · Republican 11.14%
D+39.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 7 = 40.00
- Actual margin = 51.052 − 11.142 = 39.910
- Signed miss = 40.00 − (39.910) = 0.090
- Absolute miss = |0.090| = 0.090
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32751, race ID 1279 (538 database).