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2010 House · UT-3

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 11% · Republican 56%

R+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 22.94% · Republican 72.33%

R+49.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 11 − 56 = -45.00
  2. Actual margin = 22.942 − 72.325 = -49.383
  3. Signed miss = -45.00 − (-49.383) = 4.383
  4. Absolute miss = |4.383| = 4.383

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32750, race ID 4862 (538 database).