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2010 Senate · UT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 48%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.76% · Republican 61.58%

R+28.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 48 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.762 − 61.583 = -28.821
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-28.821) = 12.821
  4. Absolute miss = |12.821| = 12.821

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32750, race ID 1540 (538 database).