2010 Governor · UT
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 32% · Republican 59%
R+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.91% · Republican 64.07%
R+32.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 32 − 59 = -27.00
- Actual margin = 31.905 − 64.068 = -32.163
- Signed miss = -27.00 − (-32.163) = 5.163
- Absolute miss = |5.163| = 5.163
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32750, race ID 1307 (538 database).