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2010 Governor · OR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 580 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 41%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 47.77%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.295 − 47.765 = 1.530
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (1.530) = 5.470
  4. Absolute miss = |5.470| = 5.470

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32748, race ID 1300 (538 database).