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2010 Senate · WI

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,372 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 53%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.02% · Republican 51.86%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 53 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.020 − 51.858 = -4.838
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-4.838) = -4.162
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.162| = 4.162

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32738, race ID 1544 (538 database).