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2010 Senate · OH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 53%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 53 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-17.442) = 4.442
  4. Absolute miss = |4.442| = 4.442

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32734, race ID 1534 (538 database).