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2010 Governor · OH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 49.04%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.036 − 49.038 = -2.002
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-2.002) = -0.998
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.998| = 0.998

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32734, race ID 1299 (538 database).