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2010 Senate · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 561 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 66%

R+40.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.38% · Republican 70.09%

R+43.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 66 = -40.00
  2. Actual margin = 26.379 − 70.094 = -43.715
  3. Signed miss = -40.00 − (-43.715) = 3.716
  4. Absolute miss = |3.716| = 3.716

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32730, race ID 1522 (538 database).