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2010 Governor · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 561 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 59%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.21% · Republican 63.28%

R+31.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 59 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.209 − 63.277 = -31.068
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-31.068) = 4.068
  4. Absolute miss = |4.068| = 4.068

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32730, race ID 1291 (538 database).