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2010 Governor · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 826 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.72% · Republican 48.87%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.722 − 48.871 = -1.149
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.149) = 4.148
  4. Absolute miss = |4.148| = 4.148

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32729, race ID 1281 (538 database).