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2010 Senate · NY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 819 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 33%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.65% · Republican 28.13%

D+31.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 33 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.645 − 28.130 = 31.515
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (31.515) = -7.515
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.515| = 7.515

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32724, race ID 1531 (538 database).