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2010 House · NV-3

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 53%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.13%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 53 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.473 − 48.126 = -0.653
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-0.653) = -9.347
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.347| = 9.347

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32723, race ID 4701 (538 database).